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EDO DECIDES: The Clash Of The Titans, Who Wins?

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While I was speaking with my Dad some few days ago concerning the Edo Gubernatorial election, he said “the election is too close to decide, who wins I can’t tell for now, but I hope the best candidate emerge as the winner of the election.”

Before going further, if I were to give my verdict as a proper Nigerian, I’d say that, it is about time we put an end to what I will call party-politics in this our dear nation. As per perspective I do not think any of the two most popular candidates contesting for that position deserves to rule the good people of Edo state. But this is a story for another day…

Moving on to the purpose of this write up, Edo state has a total of a hundred and ninety two wards, with eighteen local government areas in total.

From every aspect, as it has always being, we could say the election is between Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu of the All progressive congress (APC) and the incumbent governor, Godwin Obaseki of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

For Governor Godwin Obaseki, he has the power as the incumbent governor while Ize-Iyamu could be said to have the federal might to fall back on if the election had being perceived to go ugly. However, both candidates have the support of Big wigs politicians either from within the state or outside the state.

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Furthermore, without too much emphasis, according to the Independent National Electoral commission (INEC), a total of 2.2 million Edo indigenes are eligible to partake in the election. “According to the register, the south senatorial district has the highest number of registered voters with 1, 281,414, go by the Edo north with 564, 122, while the central district has the least with 364,998 voters.” What this could mean is that;

The Edo south consists of seven local government areas (Ikpoba Okha, Oredo,Egoor, Ovia south west, Ovia north east and Orhionwon). While the Edo North consists of six local government areas (Akoko Edo, Owan east, Etsako central, Etsako east, Etsako west and Owan west) And Edo central consists of five local government areas (Esan south east, Esan north east, Esan central, Esan west and Igueben).

The outcome of the election, in as much as it is too close to decide is somewhat predictable judging from the 2016 election however, a lot have changed…

Starting with Edo south: 56% of the total votes will be coming from this region. The vote would be shared in this region which means it is a win- win for both candidates.

And for Edo Central: This is an area where the APC has no chance, it is a landslide victory for Godwin Obaseki in this region. The only good news for the APC in this zone is that the zone will only contribute to 16% of the total votes that will determine who wins the election in Edo state…

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Edo North: This region will be contributing approximately 26% votes and if there is any region that’s so sure for the APC, it is this region. And as a matter of fact, this region will be determining who wins Edo state Guber election.

More so, as a matter of fact, Oshiomhole and Ize-Iyamu are the biggest grass root politicians in Edo state and they’ve got the support of most of the big-wigs politicians in Edo state.

Obaseki was only able to win the 2016 election due to back up from Oshiomhole.

The coming together of Oshiomhole and Ize-Iyamu in the Edo state Guber election might be a disadvantage to Governor Godwin Obaseki.

As it stands now, Obaseki will have to secure 35%-40% of the total vote cast in Edo North to win this election which is very unlikely…

MY VERDICT: Whoever wins the Edo Gubernatorial election will win with a very small margin either the election is being declared as ‘inconclusive’ or not. But as it is, it is very unlikely for Obaseki to win the election.

OLUKOYA Isaac A.

Political Analyst.

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